Africa has long been a continent with political troubles. It is a widespread idea amongst political scientists that the divisions and conflicts that exist on the continent are a result of the European colonization in the 19th-20th Centuries, when state boundaries were drawn by the colonizers. Now, some sixty years after most African countries gained independence, the continent is experiencing a period of turmoil.
The term ‘balkanization’ is used in political science to describe a process of breaking up a territory into small, hostile states. It is derived from the events in the Balkans, which saw the splitting up of Yugoslavia into seven states, hostile to each other and resulting in a series of armed conflicts. Could this be applied to what is happening in Africa now?
In January 2011, a referendum was held in Sudan. The question asked was whether South Sudan, which has been the scene of a severe conflict in recent years, would like to gain independence from the rest of the country. The official results are expected in mid-February, but the commission running the referendum has stated that preliminary results show 98.6% in favor. This could eventually lead to the braking up of Sudan, a country with a population of 44 million people. Whether this event would be classified as an example of Balkanization remains to be seen, since one cannot predict whether the new states would be ‘hostile’.
Shifting the gaze to Egypt, where the largest protest in forty years is going on at the end of January, one can see democracy in its simplest form. The people of Egypt have been protesting for the resignation of the President, Hosni Mubarak. Although this does not have the aim to break up the country, it has created an aura of hostility between the people and the ruling elite. One need only think back to the period 1789-1810 to see how a similar events in Europe proceeded to create the modern French state.
Democracy, in its simplest form, means power of the people. In theory, the people hold power in the state. It seems the people of Egypt have decided to take this idea to its fullest and request that the government resign. Again, quite simply, not giving in to such a request would be a show of anti-democratic government.
A similar protest occurred in mid-January in Tunisia. After weeks of protesting, in which a man set himself on fire, Tunisia’s President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali fled the country into exile. This led to more people coming onto the streets, asking for reforms. In this case, democracy succeeded, and the formation of a new government in imminent.
These three examples show that there is unrest in North Africa. The people want change and they are making it explicit. These events, however, did not require the military assistance of the USA (like in Iraq and Afghanistan). Whether North Africa is experiencing a revolution cannot be doubted. Yet, whether this will lead to balkanization, can be. One can only hope that, if any breaking up of territories does occur, it will not have the same consequences as it did in the former Yugoslavia. Then, military, peace-keeping action will be inevitable.
Lubo Mitev's Blog 
Nice article and I completely agree with all points of it. However, picturing the tough political challenges and pretty ‘dark’ future (for anyway predominantly black continent) might not always be the case.
Lets don’t forget the strong al-Gaddafi’s regime which with could only be broken upon his big sleep (al-Gaddafi is dead long live al-Gaddafi junior).
Also, South Africa tends to be politically stable and growing economically. Although quite small, it aims to solid the BRIC(S).
As we saw, SA could offer a good (infrastructure, safety, spectacle..ect.) event although on behalf of our football players. I certainly believe this would be case for the ‘small’ Qatar 10 years from now. Who else >? – Morocco? – is their economy worse than almost bankrupt Spain. I doubt so.
The only thing I am trying is to point out some cornerstones which Africa has. Whether they could be used as strengthening power against the Balkanization of Africa only the time will show.
By then .. AWAYS use condoms if you go to Africa 😉
Vladimir, you can call Africa dark if you like. It just goes to show you are living in the past and your only knowledge of Africa is based on history books, sad for you. Africa is a continent of light and watch out ,because her lights are gonna blind you soon. I’d advice you double up that condom or better still abstain in Russia and Ukraine , I lived there five years , speak the language and know the people. Highest HIV rate in Europe, it’s the easiest present to get out there. God bless u.